Population and demographics

The population of the Kāpiti Coast District at the 2018 census was 53,673 – an increase of 9.3 percent since 2013. Most people lived between the State Highway and the beach, in townships at Paraparaumu, Waikanae and Ōtaki.

Our population | Population forecasts | Related links

Our population

You can find out more about people of the Kāpiti Coast from 2006, 2013 and 2018 Census of Population and Dwellings on the People and Places website. This can give you a wealth of information about our district's population (age, gender, ethnicity, income, households and families), as well as your local area. You can also compare the information with the earlier 2006 and 2013 Census, as well as against the Wellington Region.

To find out more about expected population growth in the Kāpiti Coast District see the Population forecast.

Also available are annual economic profiles that provide information on the value, employment, industries and skills of the Kāpiti economy, and quarterly urban development capacity reports that monitor a number of indicators including population projections, land and building supply and housing affordability.

Population forecasts

Sense Partners have worked with the Greater Wellington Regional Council and councils across the Wellington region to develop a set of population forecasts.

The forecasts include details on the age structures, household types and drivers of population change such as migration, births and deaths each year.

The forecasts cover demographic and population changes across the region and each district for the next 30 years. Forecasts are annually reviewed and updated.

Under Sense Partners first forecast in 2021, Kāpiti was estimated to grow by approximately 32,000 people to 90,000 by 2051, requiring close to 14,000 additional dwellings.

The first annual review and update in May 2022 saw a slight reduction of growth across the Wellington region and underlying councils, accounting for impacts from COVID-19 in the short term, and uncertainty around immigration levels long term.

The May 2023 update has seen a further easing of growth across the next 30 years with further adjustments to projected growth to reflect lower levels of migration following COVID-19 restrictions.

Revised 2023 forecast scenarios for Kāpiti Coast over the next 30 years are shown below.

Sense Partners 2023 Population Forecast from 2024–54 by percentile

Percentile	2021	2024	2030	2040	2050	2054	Change 2054
5th percentile	57,422	58,197	60,236	62,008	61,107	60,210	2,788
25th percentile	57,422	58,489	62,074	66,496	68,289	68,876	11,454
50th percentile	57,422	58,744	63,552	71,140	78,538	80,924	23,502
75th percentile	57,422	58,976	65,308	76,726	87,732	92,020	34,598
95th percentile	57,422	59,239	67,039	83,236	102,171	110,175	52,753

While forecasts and factors affecting population growth change periodically, it’s important we continue to plan for growth long term. For example, recent Statistics NZ data shows migration has already risen significantly more than previous estimates (available at the time of the 2023 update), as people start to move again as COVID-19 restrictions ease.

We anticipate the district will continue to experience growth within a medium to high range, and we'll continue to monitor growth against forecasts and adjust as necessary.

Alongside updated migration data, the availability of Census 2023 data will help confirm population change in the district for the 2018 – 2023 period and the review and update of population forecasts for 2024.

Further information on the forecasts including methodology and data can be found on the Greater Wellington Region Population Forecasts website. The forecasts will be updated annually and continue to inform current growth and future Long Term Plan processes.

Previous forecasts that informed our growth planning and Long-Term Plan 2021–41 are available below.

A summary of population and dwelling growth, by Statistical Area, is shown below.

Sense Forecasts 2021

Sense Partners median population projection 2021–51 by Statistical Area 2

Statistical Area 2	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051	Change 2021–51
Forest Lakes (Kāpiti Coast District)	789	1,027	1,427	2,080	2,514	2,642	2,757	1,968
Kāpiti Island	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Maungakotukutuku	1,457	1,665	1,908	2,069	2,210	2,337	2,438	981
Otaihanga	894	999	1,107	1,207	1,302	1,399	1,500	606
Ōtaki	3,911	4,395	5,015	5,663	6,317	6,904	7,422	3,511
Ōtaki Beach	1,964	2,142	2,334	2,492	2,615	2,731	2,852	888
Ōtaki Forks	820	887	969	1,039	1,093	1,148	1,207	387
Paekākāriki	1,800	1,805	1,820	1,845	1,868	1,883	1,898	98
Paraparaumu Beach East	2,732	2,875	2,976	3,000	3,049	3,120	3,191	459
Paraparaumu Beach North	4,186	4,244	4,308	4,359	4,424	4,507	4,601	415
Paraparaumu Beach West	2,462	2,575	2,689	2,761	2,843	2,946	3,056	594
Paraparaumu Central	4,337	4,730	5,224	5,637	6,005	6,303	6,525	2,188
Paraparaumu East	2,766	3,433	3,838	4,096	4,505	5,246	6,253	3,487
Paraparaumu North	3,780	4,083	4,416	4,656	4,773	4,851	4,937	1,157
Peka Peka	695	798	1,009	1,333	1,531	1,657	1,816	1,121
Raumati Beach East	2,518	2,726	2,949	3,144	3,265	3,345	3,426	908
Raumati Beach West	3,001	3,211	3,367	3,436	3,514	3,609	3,718	717
Raumati South	4,056	4,403	4,749	5,062	5,328	5,545	5,751	1,695
Tararua Forest Park	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Te Horo	1,521	1,724	1,910	2,028	2,142	2,258	2,380	859
Waikanae Beach	3,470	3,740	4,003	4,165	4,320	4,484	4,640	1,170
Waikanae East	2,888	3,410	3,717	4,150	4,679	5,124	5,525	2,637
Waikanae Park	2,381	2,983	3,691	4,312	4,863	5,382	5,903	3,522
Waikanae West	4,745	5,201	5,621	5,978	6,357	6,670	6,916	2,171
Waitohu	1,037	1,051	1,088	1,137	1,203	1,276	1,357	320
Total	58,255	64,129	70,176	75,690	80,731	85,381	90,069	31,814

Sense Partners median dwelling projection 2021–51 by Statistical Area 2

Statistical Area 2	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046	2051	Change 2021–51
Forest Lakes (Kāpiti Coast District)	349	436	623	876	1,022	1,078	1,136	787
Kāpiti Island	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Maungakotukutuku	617	690	778	843	904	963	1,013	396
Otaihanga	381	429	478	523	568	615	665	284
Ōtaki	1,858	2,109	2,359	2,609	2,860	3,111	3,376	1,518
Ōtaki Beach	1,203	1,267	1,346	1,406	1,450	1,497	1,547	344
Ōtaki Forks	368	387	413	431	449	468	492	124
Paekākāriki	872	878	886	895	907	916	926	54
Paraparaumu Beach East	1,312	1,399	1,459	1,485	1,523	1,570	1,620	308
Paraparaumu Beach North	1,753	1,785	1,813	1,840	1,874	1,921	1,975	222
Paraparaumu Beach West	1,354	1,407	1,451	1,476	1,512	1,559	1,617	263
Paraparaumu Central	2,148	2,367	2,585	2,765	2,947	3,099	3,215	1,067
Paraparaumu East	1,083	1,328	1,491	1,591	1,777	2,028	2,295	1,212
Paraparaumu North	1,762	1,907	2,063	2,173	2,229	2,278	2,325	563
Peka Peka	381	419	568	779	876	940	1,022	641
Raumati Beach East	1,158	1,253	1,356	1,445	1,503	1,550	1,604	446
Raumati Beach West	1,461	1,559	1,626	1,650	1,688	1,733	1,791	330
Raumati South	1,800	1,953	2,089	2,211	2,323	2,424	2,515	715
Tararua Forest Park	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Te Horo	815	875	933	966	1,000	1,037	1,073	258
Waikanae Beach	2,269	2,342	2,412	2,448	2,484	2,522	2,557	288
Waikanae East	1,273	1,453	1,584	1,784	2,035	2,267	2,498	1,225
Waikanae Park	1,254	1,505	1,755	2,006	2,257	2,507	2,772	1,518
Waikanae West	2,502	2,741	2,965	3,152	3,332	3,489	3,625	1,123
Waitohu	469	481	500	527	562	602	646	177
Total	28,453	30,978	33,555	35,901	38,089	40,179	42,305	13,852

Population forecasts informing the Long-term Plan 2021–41

Population growth forecasts for Kāpiti were updated in 2020 to inform the Long-term Plan 2021–41. The forecasts were based on projections provided by BERL Economics; you can read the full berl Kāpiti Coast District population and dwelling projections [PDF 1.26 MB].

The population growth forecasts reflected actual and estimated increased connectivity to Wellington from the Expressway and Transmission Gully, the estimated short term impacts of COVID-19, actual historic population growth rates achieved by the district and future growth anticipated from the implementation of the National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD) and the emerging Wellington Regional Growth Framework (WRGF).

At the time, the population of Kāpiti was estimated to grow by approximately 30,000 people to 85,658 by 2050, requiring up to an additional 12,000 dwellings, (assuming an average household size of 2.5 occupants). Year-on-year population growth (number, percentage and dwellings), by Statistical Area, are shown below.

These projections have since been updated by forecasts produced by the Greater Wellington Region Population Forecasts.

Projected 2020–50 population by Statistical Area 2

Statistical Area 2	2020	2021	2024	2027	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050	Change 2021–50
Waikanae Park	2,154	2,255	2,610	3,245	3,858	4,868	5,873	6,578	6,874	4,720
Ōtaki	3,605	3,691	4,007	4,281	4,584	5,578	6,628	7,865	9,329	5,724
Waikanae West	4,523	4,541	4,746	4,973	5,195	5,841	6,768	7,601	8,247	3,724
Paraparaumu Central	4,133	4,170	4,386	4,627	4,837	5,336	6,003	6,866	7,967	3,834
Paraparaumu East	2,340	2,376	2,546	2,741	2,935	3,380	3,915	4,565	5,354	3,014
Raumati South	3,878	3,879	3,889	4,033	4,202	4,399	4,594	4,745	4,829	951
Waikanae East	2,473	2,492	2,639	2,863	3,069	3,421	3,735	4,187	4,782	2,309
Forest Lakes	686	691	742	835	979	1,160	1,309	1,467	1,568	882
Paraparaumu North	3,686	3,708	3,804	3,893	4,008	4,090	4,123	4,190	4,317	631
Peka Peka	635	657	751	854	960	1,092	1,200	1,316	1,452	817
Otaihanga	831	847	900	951	1,016	1,147	1,219	1,302	1,404	573
Raumati Beach East	2,458	2,463	2,489	2,512	2,560	2,644	2,731	2,812	2,892	434
Waitohu	1,045	1,076	1,182	1,239	1,304	1,360	1,423	1,471	1,542	497
Maungakotukutuku	1,384	1,413	1,506	1,606	1,641	1,652	1,664	1,690	1,740	356
Paraparaumu Beach East	2,762	2,762	2,805	2,848	2,900	2,893	2,887	2,907	2,968	206
Waikanae Beach	3,362	3,366	3,393	3,412	3,452	3,457	3,463	3,499	3,586	224
Raumati Beach West	2,961	2,966	2,998	3,021	3,060	3,071	3,083	3,121	3,204	243
Paraparaumu Beach West	2,443	2,446	2,461	2,471	2,497	2,496	2,496	2,517	2,575	132
Ōtaki Beach	1,877	1,900	1,939	1,963	1,998	2,021	2,045	2,085	2,156	279
Te Horo	1,471	1,479	1,508	1,541	1,565	1,577	1,590	1,616	1,666	195
Paraparaumu Beach North	4,192	4,192	4,210	4,231	4,252	4,273	4,273	4,273	4,273	81
Paekākāriki	1,802	1,808	1,823	1,835	1,859	1,866	1,873	1,897	1,947	145
Ōtaki Forks	803	809	828	845	868	891	913	942	986	183
Kāpiti Island	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tararua Forest Park	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kāpiti Coast District	55,504	55,987	58,164	60,820	63,599	68,514	73,809	79,513	85,658	30,154

Source: Population and household forecasts 2020 to 2050 developed from berl’s high forecast and taking historical and future anticipated growth into account.

Projected 2020–50 growth in dwellings by Statistical Area 2

Statistical Area 2	2021–23	2024–26	2027–30	2031–35	2036–40	2041–45	2046–50	Change 2021–50
Waikanae Park	133	224	324	404	402	282	118	1,888
Ōtaki	110	125	157	398	420	495	586	2,290
Waikanae West	48	103	118	258	371	333	258	1,489
Paraparaumu Central	50	118	114	200	267	345	440	1,534
Paraparaumu East	48	86	105	178	214	260	316	1,206
Raumati South	6	38	88	79	78	60	34	382
Waikanae East	35	93	111	141	126	181	238	923
Forest Lakes	15	24	78	72	60	63	40	353
Paraparaumu North	37	34	58	33	13	27	51	252
Peka Peka	33	41	56	53	43	46	54	327
Otaihanga	21	20	33	52	29	33	41	229
Raumati Beach East	10	8	23	34	35	32	32	174
Waitohu	40	29	34	22	25	19	28	199
Maungakotukutuku	39	36	28	4	5	10	20	142
Paraparaumu Beach East	13	15	27	0	0	9	24	88
Waikanae Beach	11	6	19	3	2	14	35	91
Raumati Beach West	12	9	19	4	5	15	33	97
Paraparaumu Beach West	7	2	12	1	1	8	23	55
Ōtaki Beach	23	8	18	9	10	16	28	112
Te Horo	12	11	15	5	5	10	20	78
Paraparaumu Beach North	4	8	11	8	0	0	0	32
Paekākāriki	8	4	12	3	3	10	20	58
Ōtaki Forks	8	6	12	9	9	12	18	73
Kāpiti Island	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tararua Forest Park	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kāpiti Coast District	722	1,047	1,471	1,971	2,121	2,282	2,458	12,072

Source: Population and household forecasts 2020 to 2050 developed from berl’s high forecast and taking historical and future anticipated growth into account.

Table of annual average increase in population growth

2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050
0.9%	1.0%	1.3%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%

Note the annual population growth from year 4 is estimated to be 1.5 percent per annum using the average of actual historic growth rates. A new forecast provider has recently been engaged to develop forecasts and supporting information on the changes in population, age structure and household types for all councils across the Wellington Region. This information will be updated onto the website once available.